Thursday, October 9, 2014

vi141009 Determining market size 

Twelve niche markets can’t lose 

Planning the Seattle Printmakers Center is a pleasurable task when it comes to determining the market size for the development. In this essay, one leader accounts for his past experience determining the market size for one component to sustain the Center. 

A dozen reasons that the Seattle Printmakers Center will be self-sustaining 


When you listen to the fundraising campaigns of the local NPR affiliate, KUOW, I frequently hear the phrase, “self sustaining,” and I smile inwardly because it’s an oxymoron. If the station were self-sustaining as they say, then why are they urging listener to send money?
In the fourth year of my project making Halfwood Presses, I wrote a book titled, “Halfwood Press, the story.” In it I wanted to document what happened to bring about this design and I wanted to tell the story in terms of the first thirty people who bought the presses. I wanted to tell my story, too and I tried to make it complete in the style of an interview.
About midway through the story, I wove in an account of my attempt to estimate the size of the market for the presses. I was thinking that maybe the press could be a real business; I could make a salary! Or, in the best of all worlds, grow the business until I could sell it and retire to my Big Project. How I determined the size of the market was according to the demographics represented by those thirty owners of the presses—what gender, what age spectrum, educational background, income level, etc.
My conclusion was, in 2008, that 400,000 people would buy the Halfwood Press line if they knew about it. If I were a real company, with a sales staff, a marketing machine, and all the back-office support it takes a small business to grow and sustain itself and the people who worked there, then those 400,000 potential customers would, indeed, know about and want one of the Halfwood Presses. Even more than presses, in fact, I have ideas for accessorizing the press—even to the point of products designed for niche markets within the arts and education industry.
This analysis and my book never took me anywhere. Although I attended startup meetings, workshops, and MeetUps where I hoped to find a co-founder with a business mind, the number, 400,000 customers in the United States alone, had no impact (and, ever hopeful, I continue to go to these meetings). As a designer and innovator in my field, I hold my own, but as a promoter of business development and growth, I can’t seem to cut it.
Yet, I am still taking the approach I took in 2008 as I now work on determining the market size for the Halfwood Press line and apply the method to Seattle Printmakers Center. In statistical analysis, as this work is known, a person takes a perspective, somewhat like an artist decides on a point of view. You can apply this to almost any kind of art—story telling, photography, screen writing, etc. My point of view is that of an educator. Education has the driver’s seat when it comes to art in my world. Like a carpenter sees every tool as a potential hammer, every business—to a teacher—takes on an aspect like an educational experience.
Therefore, I took my experience as a college teacher as my point of view in arriving at the 400,000 number for potential press purchasers. In other words, in the 19 years I taught, I asked, “To how many students did I teach printmaking? How many colleges were there across the country during those 19 years, with teachers like me and students like the ones at the University of Washington?”
The thirty people who bought the Halfwood Presses had, generally speaking, some education in printmaking, and they liked printmaking—particularly intaglio printmaking—well enough to shell out hundreds or thousands of dollars to purchase and, in other countries, pay the taxes and shipping costs half way around the world. It worked for thirty people.
Another generation of students had continued to go to college after I left campus in 1985, so at the time I did my market analysis in 2008, therefore the number of students who took printmaking and liked it about doubled over what it had been in my limited experience. That’s how I concluded my exercise and came up with 400,000.
It has been six years since my 2008 arithmetic. I wonder what it is today, in 2014?
It makes me think, but I prefer not to do the arithmetic again. It was sufficient for me, in 2008, to be encouraged and go on for another six year despite that I got nowhere with business acquaintances, trying to get the attention of a co-founder who has a business mind and who is as passionate about education and technology in the arts as I am.
Rather, I will bundle the market analysis of the Halfwood Press line with the niche markets that go along with printmaking. For example, there will be the business of publishing in and about prints, printmaking and printmakers—similar to the two European legacy magazines on paper and the one in the US, the Journal of the Print World. The publishing niche will be another one of the dozen income streams that will sustain the Seattle Printmakers Center.
(Can you speculate on what enterprise will be the biggest advertising customer in the publications—both in paper and a digital, online magazine—that come out of the Seattle Printmakers Center publishing component?)

Therefore, I submit that with a development team made up of people who love prints, printmaking and printmakers—and from the perspective of education—the Seattle Printmakers Center will truly be self-sustaining as it is fed by a dozen income streams from the components comprising the Center. We, at the center, will not have annual fundraising drives and claim that we are self-sustaining. Our customers will sustain us for producing good products and services.

No comments:

Post a Comment